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PMI activity indexes galore, without forgetting Alstom or Tesla

We’ll get to the heart of the matter on Wednesday with the full release PMI, these indexes that measure the morale of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services. These are preliminary estimates for January. These statistics will interrupt the session in Europe during the morning, in the United States in the afternoon. If, in theory, the fall in long-term rates has eased financial conditions and given businesses some room to manoeuvre, the numbers must now bear this out. Unfortunately, the index of the manufacturing industry should remain below the threshold of 50, which separates the zone of contraction from the phase of expansion of activity, whether in France, Germany or the eurozone. (see table below). The same should be true in the services sector, although indicators should flirt with 50.

Earth

Indicator

January (consensus)

December

France

Manufacturing PMI

42.5

42.1

France

PMI services

46

45.7

Germany

Manufacturing PMI

43.7

43.3

Germany

PMI services

49.2

49.3

eurozone

Manufacturing PMI

44.7

44.4

eurozone

PMI services

49

48.8

eurozone

Composite PMI

48

47.6

Pretty grim US economy

In the United States, the latest regional manufacturing surveys from New York and Philadelphia showed a downward trend, indicating signs PMI depressed again. In manufacturing, they expect 47.5 in January (compared to 47.9 in December) and 51 in services (51.4 in December). “Lthe last Beige Book reported a decline in industrial activity at the start of 2024. In general, the surveys paint a pretty grim picture of the US economy for several months. ยป, Oddo BHF noted at the beginning of the week.

In addition to the PMI indices, investors will also look at the traditional ones US Department of Energy Weekly Oil Inventories and coPhiladelphia Federal Reserve’s January survey of non-manufacturing businesses. On the corporate front, quarterly earnings season remains in full swing. In France, a manufacturer of railway equipment Alstomwhose financial year is postponed will publish its turnover for the third quarter 2023-2024. The Aramis Group, Aubay, Bio-UV group, Crit group, ID Logistics, Vetoquinol Or Visiative will also be in action. As well as several of the world’s technological heavyweights such as ASML, AT&T, IBM, SAP Or Are you here.

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